Saturday, March 26, 2011

Jimmer Fredette’s Future: NBA Fame or Obscurity?

The magical run is over for my favorite college basketball player Jimmer Fredette, not even Gus Johnson could save Fredette’s immediate future in the NCAA tournament. How Fredette’s skill set will translate to the NBA remains to be seen but let’s speculate.  Fredette has been called “Mr. Clutch,” commended for his confidence in shooting 30-foot three pointers, and can take over most games when he wants. Sound familiar? Enter JJ Redick, who had every single one of these same accolades in a much more difficult conference, it’s a lot easier averaging 30+ a game against the Mountain West than the ACC. Redick was showing the nation the ridiculous threes Fredette is so often praised for years before but why do we forget about that? JJ Redick still holds the NCAA record for most 3-pointers in a college career (457) but what is the last significant basketball memory for Redick. Oh…



Or even better…



Redick was once regarded as the most dominant player in college basketball and now he can’t even guard players from lackluster sub-.500 teams. How can he fade from our memories so quickly? Sure, people always knocked JJ for his “lack of athletic ability” and subpar defensive skills but praised him for his “pure shooting capability.” This is starting to sound all too familiar. Jimmer has one of the best shots I’ve seen in college basketball, better than JJ’s, but a more fair comparison of Fredette to an NBA player would actually not be JJ Redick as so many people seem to think, it would actually be Redick’s Orlando Magic teammate Jameer Nelson. A scoring-first point guard who has to learn how to facilitate the ball, something Fredette, nor Nelson when he first entered the league, has never had to do but is it their fault?

People are crushing Jimmer for being a ballhog in the Florida game Thursday night but honestly who was he going to pass it to? His one good teammate was kicked off the team, let’s pass it to the guys who are shooting 33% versus the best player on the team. Admittedly, Jimmer was not having his best shooting night (38%) but that stat is inflated by the many shot he was forced to attempt to keep his team in the game. Florida would not allow Jimmer to shoot the three, he was only 3-15 in the game but you remove his three point field goals and attempts and Jimmer is a solid 57% shot for the game. Obviously, he took those shots and didn’t make them but it’s bombastic to think Jimmer was being a ballhog when there were really no other options.

All comparisons aside, Fredette will be good in the NBA, not great. He will never be Derrick Rose but with a superstar on his team, he can shine. My best description for Fredette in the NBA would be the “irrational confidence guy” on his team, the guy who thinks he’s a lot better than he is. Think John Starks on the Patrick Ewing New York Knicks, Stephon Marbury on basically every team he ever played, and Eddie House/Nate Robinson on last year’s Celtics team. He can be a game changer, but not all the time, just sometimes. But sometimes is good enough and I hope Jimmer will prove me wrong, but it’s not very likely. He’s this year’s Tim Tebow, never capable of leading a team to a championship, but with capable players surround him, he can make the difference, even if it’s only for a game.     

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